Last updated on Dec 17, 2023
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What is technical analysis?
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How to choose an ETF based on performance?
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How to choose an ETF based on trends?
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How to choose an ETF based on volatility?
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How to choose an ETF based on indicators?
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How to combine technical analysis with other factors?
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Here’s what else to consider
Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are popular investment vehicles that offer exposure to a variety of asset classes, sectors, regions, and strategies. However, not all ETFs are created equal, and choosing the best one for your goals and risk profile can be challenging. In this article, you will learn how to use technical analysis to evaluate and compare different ETFs based on their performance, trends, volatility, and indicators.
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1 What is technical analysis?
Technical analysis is a method of studying the price movements and patterns of securities using historical data, charts, and mathematical tools. Technical analysts believe that the market reflects all the relevant information and emotions of the investors, and that by analyzing the price action, they can identify the direction, strength, and duration of the prevailing trends and signals. Technical analysis can help you to find entry and exit points, set stop-loss and take-profit levels, and avoid emotional biases.
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- Nathan Anneh CEO, Trader | Investment Banker at ANNEH CAPITAL LLC
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To choose the best ETF strategy, start by defining your investment goals, assessing your risk tolerance, and considering your time horizon. Prioritize diversification and research ETFs thoroughly, examining factors like expense ratios, historical performance, and asset classes. Explore factor-based strategies aligned with your philosophy and periodically rebalance your portfolio. Seek professional advice if needed and stay informed about market trends. Remember, there's no one-size-fits-all solution, and your strategy should align with your unique circ*mstances and long-term objectives.
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2 How to choose an ETF based on performance?
One of the first steps to choose an ETF is to compare its performance with its benchmark, peers, and market. You can use various metrics, such as returns, risk-adjusted returns, drawdowns, and tracking errors, to assess how well an ETF has performed over different time periods and market conditions. You can also use technical indicators, such as moving averages, relative strength index (RSI), and momentum, to measure the trend, momentum, and mean-reversion of an ETF. You should look for ETFs that have consistent and positive performance, low volatility and tracking errors, and strong trends and momentum.
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3 How to choose an ETF based on trends?
Trends are the general direction of the price movements of a security over time. They can be classified as uptrends, downtrends, or sideways trends, depending on whether the price is making higher highs and higher lows, lower highs and lower lows, or fluctuating within a range. You can use trendlines, channels, and trend-following indicators, such as moving average convergence divergence (MACD), to identify and confirm the trends of an ETF. You should look for ETFs that have clear and stable trends, and avoid those that have frequent and erratic trend changes or show signs of trend reversal.
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I started recently but I actively search for trends in sectors like cybersecurity, health, technology, and IT, and analyse the market's potential direction, in medium to long term. When I identify ETFs with clear and promising trends in these sectors that align with my market outlook, I investment in order to capitalize opportunities as soon as possible.
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- Nathan Anneh CEO, Trader | Investment Banker at ANNEH CAPITAL LLC
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To choose an ETF based on trends, start by identifying and understanding market trends through research and staying informed. Look for ETFs that specifically target the identified trend, considering factors like holdings, methodology, and historical performance. Evaluate expense ratios, liquidity, and diversification of potential ETFs. Assess the associated risks and align them with your risk tolerance. Stay informed about the trend and adjust your strategy accordingly.
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4 How to choose an ETF based on volatility?
Volatility is the degree of variation of the price movements of a security over time. It reflects the uncertainty and risk of the market. You can use measures, such as standard deviation, beta, and historical volatility, to quantify the volatility of an ETF. You can also use indicators, such as Bollinger bands, average true range (ATR), and volatility index (VIX), to visualize and monitor the volatility of an ETF. You should look for ETFs that have volatility levels that match your risk tolerance and trading style, and avoid those that have excessive or unpredictable volatility.
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5 How to choose an ETF based on indicators?
Indicators are mathematical calculations that are derived from the price and volume data of a security. They can provide additional information and insights about the market conditions, trends, momentum, volatility, and sentiment of an ETF. There are hundreds of indicators available, but some of the most common ones are RSI, MACD, stochastic oscillator, moving averages, Bollinger bands, and Fibonacci retracements. You should look for ETFs that have indicators that support your trading strategy and objectives, and avoid those that have conflicting or contradictory indicators.
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6 How to combine technical analysis with other factors?
Technical analysis is a powerful tool that can help you to choose the best ETF strategy, but it is not the only factor that you should consider. You should also take into account the fundamental analysis, which evaluates the underlying value and performance of the ETF and its components. You should also consider the fees, liquidity, diversification, and tax efficiency of the ETF, as these can affect your returns and risks. You should also review your portfolio allocation, risk profile, and investment horizon, and adjust your ETF strategy accordingly.
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7 Here’s what else to consider
This is a space to share examples, stories, or insights that don’t fit into any of the previous sections. What else would you like to add?
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It's wise to save capital and invest strategically, particularly avoiding the impact of fees and transaction costs associated with frequent trading. Buying and selling ETFs multiple times within a month can add up in terms of transaction fees and potentially erode your overall returns. By adopting a more long-term and strategic investment approach, you can minimize these costs and potentially benefit from the compounding effect of your investments over time.
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